Thursday, October 29, 2009

Financial Obfuscation and Health Insurance

It was recently brought to my attention that medical insurance companies are pulling out the "sad puppy eyes" card. They are claiming they hardly make any money and are operating at peak efficiency in a bid to prevent the government from regulating the health insurance industry, if not to receive a financial bailout!

Firstly, I feel I have to define "corporation" for those who falsely personify these entities. To paraphrase Robert Reich, one of my favorite economic writers, a corporation is nothing more than a collection of contracts designed to compensate financial and labor contributions for the financial benifit of those involved. It is a social subset functioning to benefit those within the corporation by selling something to the rest of society. Social subsets come in all forms, from communities, to cities, to states, to countries, to coalitions of countries. Generally speaking, the formation of social subsets are beneficial to society as a whole as long as a subset does not take from or dictate to other subsets. As long as some equilibrium of power is maintained (in the case of corporations, through regulations preventing trusts or monopolies) they benefit society as a whole.

Now, what does this have to do with medical insurance companies you ask? Primarily because they are the only industry who has an exemption from the anti-trust and monopoly regulations, in the form of the McCarran-Ferguson Act of 1945.

To the question of whether or not the health insurance companies are the sad pandas they claim to be!

In short, no. To understand the financial statics numbers they've thrown at the public (which suggest what they claim), you have to review their income statements to verify these claims.

We can start with United Health.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=UNH

United Health has an operating margin of 7.33% and a profit margin of 4.2% (that means they show their fixed costs amount to only 3.13% of income). This raises warning flags on just a glance! It brings into question their numbers when they are this far skewed. It is akin to someone owning several multimillion dollar homes but claiming they only had $20,000 in taxable income on their tax return.

If you look at UNH's income statements, the only fixed cost they list is for taxes, so they have labor, supplies, utilities, buildings, etc all listed as CoGS, pushing their operating margin far lower than would normally be seen in a company (as most of those things are normally listed as expenses). So, basically, the warning flags were right, they are playing accounting games. I mean, I have trouble understanding why advertising and all of labor costs can be lumped into CoGS, unless you are trying to artificially deflate your operating margin.

So, if you dig into the numbers, here's what you find for United Health:
Revenue = 21.7b
Medical Claims Expenses (what they paid out) = 16.1b
So, for a normal company, this would be a 25.8% operating margin. It is all how you sort the numbers.

Cigna is probably the worst of them all. Just taking their CEO into account, it is obvious that something is going on. Cigna's CEO had a salary of $1.1m in 2007, plus a bonus of 21m, plus about 32m in perks, plus about 10m in company stock. Not a bad income, considering claims denials skyrocketed while premiums went up that year. In 2008, his bonus was only 12m, the rest was about the same. As a comparison, Jack Welch (one of the most compensated CEOs) made $16m in salary and bonuses his last year at GE, plus another $15m in stock. That's not even half of the Cigna CEOs income. Besides that, GE increased revenue and profits under Welch, but Cigna's revenue has barely budged while its profits went up slightly under Ed Hanway. Most notably, GE is 15x the size of Cigna. Overcompensated much? Looking into the artful way the financials have been obfuscated under his leadership, it becomes clear exactly why he's making the money he has been paid.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CI

In 2008, Cigna's breakdown was like this:
Total Revenue = 19.1b
Medical Claims Expenses (what they paid out) = 7.25b
So, for a normal company, this would be a 62% operating margin. But they show an operating margin of only 5.31%.

It is all how you sort the numbers.

Now, to look at their (supposedly) dismal profit margins. In finance, a profit margin is only a good indicator when the company's goal is to make it as large as they possibly can. It is not exactly a good judge of how profitable a company is, specifically when a company is trying to make it a small number. Both of the insurance companies I picked to review income statements are hiding a large chunk of their profits by investing the money. This is apparent when you look at their return on investments line item. United Health has almost 10% of its revenue coming from its investment portfolio in 2008, Cigna was about 5%. This was in a year where the investment portfolios of most people had flat-lined or tanked. Looking at their balance sheets, both companies are sitting on a literal mountain of investments. Silly me, I thought they were in the business of providing health insurance, not running investments.

Bottom line - they saw this coming and have clearly prepared their books to obfuscate what is really going on. However, with a little finance knowledge, their sob story quickly unravels.

Thursday, June 11, 2009

I didn't know how bad the economy was until...

I posted a new job online. Just a piddly office assistant position. Relatively normal pay range. Nothing special.

I have had over 100 applicants in 2 days. This was surprising, but not truly disheartening. 94 people with some form of degree. 49 of them have at least a Bachelor's Degree. 2 have a Master's Degree. 1 has a doctorate.

Now, granted, there are degrees that aren't worth the paper they are printed on and there are degrees that should get you a job. Right?

4 RNs. 6 Business degrees. 1 Economics degree. 1 CPA. 3 PAs. 14 Medical Assistants. Plus a healthy sprinkling of education degrees and some of those odd degrees that beg the question "what were you planning on doing with that degree?"

Is the economy really this bad? Are these people seriously willing to take a job with crap pay answering phones and filing? Are there simply this many people who are dragging out their unemployment as long as possible? In any event, this is a bad sign.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

The Pot (Washington) calls the Kettle (Corporations) black

Of all the people on the face of the planet, members of the U.S. Senate should be the absolute last people to talk about wasteful spending and exorbitant executive bonuses while posting negative net income on the books.

Leave it to politicians... hypocrite is synonymous with politician, right?

Unfortunately for Detroit, they can't print money, raid the employee retirement fund, raid the employee insurance fund, take a portion of their employees' income, take a percentage of their employees' personal spending, and take a profit off anything any other company sells their employees so they can artificially inflate their own prices.

Yeah, it is a good thing corporations can't do what the government does.

So, let's compare apples to apples here. For fun, let's compare the budgets of the Federal Government with GM (I added Toyota to show how a well functioning company's numbers would look). Who would you trust with your money? (numbers are in $millions)


U.S.A.

%

GMC

%

Toyota

%

Gross Income

$2,699,900

100.00%

$181,120

100.00%

$232,400

100.00%








Executive Compensation

$29,400

1.09%

$39

0.02%

$20

0.01%

General & Admin Expenses

$293,600

10.87%

$14,371

7.93%

$18,797

8.09%

Cost of Goods Sold

$2,156,700

79.88%

$154,320

85.20%

$177,060

76.19%

Miscellaneous Income/Cost

($289,400)

-10.72%

($2,780)

-1.53%

$11,937

5.14%

Health Care

$429,700

15.92%

$4,840

2.67%

$3,293

1.42%

Interest on Debt

$487,300

18.05%

$2,930

1.62%

$423

0.18%

Total Costs

$3,107,300

115.09%

$173,720

95.91%

$211,530

91.02%








Earnings

($407,400)

-15.09%

$7,400

4.09%

$20,870

8.98%








Depreciation & Amortization

$0

0.00%

$9,510

5.25%

$13,180

5.67%

Earnings Before Taxes

($407,400)

-15.09%

($2,110)

-1.16%

$7,690

3.31%

Thursday, November 13, 2008

So, I broke down and got a motorcycle

2008 Suzuki GSX-R 750cc.
Yes, I could've gotten the Ducati 848, but...
-GSX-R gets better gas mileage
-GSX-R is several thousand dollars less in price
-GSX-R is easier to maintain than the Italian (big surprise?)
-GSX-R is VASTLY more comfortable to ride
-GSX-R has a steering dampener... unlike some Italians which were designed to be lesser bikes
-GSX-R has a 4.5 gallon tank, compared to the 4.1 gallon Italian, furthering the range difference
-GSX-R allows tall guys like myself to customize the locations of pegs and handlebars - very nice!
-GSX-R is an I-4 which is just easier to drive than a V-2
-GSX-R is much more forgiving with: turning, shifting, and accelerating
-GSX-R has mode select, so it can be detuned for better fuel economy

So, it is a much better bike for me. I don't get to sniff my nose and say "well, I drive an ITALIAN race bike" but, I do get to smile and say "I didn't get financially raped for some fancy name plates on a bike where the only benefits can be found on a track that I will never ride".

I found the ultimate car!

Ariel Atom 2. It beats super sport bikes. It isn't exactly a practical car. It has no trunk. It has only seating for two. In fact, it doesn't have any body panels or windshield. It weighs 1000 lbs. It has 300 bhp and 250 ft lbs of torque. 0-60 in 2.9 seconds. Cornering that destroys other cars and motorcycles. In fact, the idiots (I say this with the utmost respect) on Top Gear raced it against a Honda CBR 1000. The Atom turned out a time of 1:19 and the CBR turned out a time of 1:24. Beyond that, it beat the Porsche GT (a $600,000 car). It basically takes the Lotus Exige to a whole new level. Price tags start around 38k and go past 60k with options. There is nothing like it. A guy can dream, can't he?

Kyoto and reducing emissions

This is in response to the news release I read about on CNN about Kyoto. It turns out that the only reason Kyoto's members are anywhere close to their goals is because of the staggering economic recession in Russia during the 90s (they still have yet to fully recover). In fact, the only countries that have reductions (besides Russia) are Sweden, France, Germany, and the UK. Oh, but it gets far, far worse...

Per capita emissions tell a very interesting story. Populations in Europe are decreasing or stagnant, while the US has population growth (almost entirely from emigration). So, even though France, Germany, and the UK can point to decreases of 2-6% in their emissions, how much of that is actually because of population loss compared to population growth in the rest of the world? Germany loses 0.2% of their population per year. France gains 0.4% per year. The UK comes in with 0.3% growth. Compare this with the 0.9% growth in the US.

So, the important information would be the per capita (in parenthesis is the tonnage of emissions per capita) increase or decrease in green house gas emissions (these numbers are from the IEA and include ALL greenhouse gases, not just CO2), which is as follows:
Luxemberg (22.99-24.9) ..............8.3% increase
Australia (26.17-26.11) ................0.2% decrease
United States (24.37-23.44)..........3.8% DECREASE
Canada (23.4-23.49).....................0.4% increase
New Zealand (18.5-19.44)............5% increase
Germany (12.36-12.33)................0.2% decrease
Denmark (13.15-14.07)................7% increase
France (9.44-9.26).......................1.9% decrease
Japan (10.52-10.49).....................0.3% decrease
Spain (9.32-9.8)...........................5.2% increase
UK (11.1-11.01)..........................0.8% decrease

Those are the numbers between 2000-2003. All of those countries went through an economic recession, but emission rates are not affected much by recession as the numbers are driven mostly by car emissions and home heating and cooling. So, the US is actually reducing emissions, it is just being obscured by population growth. So, as I have said before, regulations are less efficient at reducing emissions than incentives. So, the Bush administration made a good move on that (how'd that happen?!?) - but as usual, Bush is a bumbling idiot and can't explain what his rather brilliant advisors came up with when he is asked. Which brings up the question, "what does he actually do again?" - but that's a whole different topic.

In fact, emissions per capita in the US peaked in 1997 and have been decreasing steadily (with a slight rise in 2003-2004 of 0.18 tons per capita) ever since (2006 = 23.1 tons per capita). I had to run a prediction on the other GHGs to obtain the 2005 and 2006 data, since there was only CO2 information for those two years so far (the margin of error is 5 digits past the significant digits I show).

You might ask, "it doesn't matter, we have a long way to go to catch up with the low levels of those European countries." Well... France has 70% of their electricty coming from Nuclear Power, which I think people in the US would be somewhat opposed to. Moreover, France, the UK, and Spain all have significantly warmer climates than the US. Over 50% of the population of the US live in area with a 5 degree C colder average temperature than France and Spain is even warmer. This obviously does not excuse the gap, but it gives some explanation for how large it is.

But, the truly staggering problem is Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Some numbers that were over looked in the previous list:
Qatar 67.9
UAE 36.1
Kuwait 31.6

Despite the common perception, these are modern countries, with per capita GDPs equal to most Western Countries. Qatar, in fact has the third highest per capita GDP in the world (the US is 8th by the way). If you go with the adjusted, PPP, those three countries sit in the low $20k per capita with most Western European nations.

Then we get to China...
The IEA released another report last month stating that they were changing their predictions, China is now set to pass the US as the greatest contributor of greenhouse gases by the end of this year (2007). China has emissions increases of 9.3% PER YEAR - as in, they have doubled their emissions in the last 5 years. 2006-2007 was a 9.3% increase (China's National Bureau of Statistics). Now, it doesn't take too much effort to see a problem with this trend. If China doubles its emissions in the next 5 years, that will cause a 25% increase in GLOBAL emissions if everywhere else on the planet maintains the same emissions output (which is never going to happen considering countries like India are also increasing their output in a dramatic way as well).
In fact, China's 2005-2006 increase in GHGs was equal to 106% of France's TOTAL yearly output.

So, as nice as it is for France to do its part by reducing their country's emissions, it simply is not going to have any affect globally. The decrease in emissions that the US had in the same period of time was 12 times smaller than China's increase. The modern countries in the world are simply unable to counteract the increases of the developing world.

Hybrids won't help GM, Ford, or Chrysler

Hybrids aren't the answer. If you read research papers on the reasons people buy cars. Hybrids only target a rather small portion of the market. The problem world-wide for America's Big 3 has always been quality. Toyota's rise is directly linked to the significantly lower defect rate on their vehicles. Fuel efficiency tends to be in the middle or near the bottom in the lists of why people buy cars in the research papers I've read (depending on what vehicle category the research is done on). I can't link the research papers because they are on my school's online library, which is only available to students.

I will link some articles that may help you get an idea of why some companies are doing well, while others aren't.

First, quality:

So, who leads in the quality department for cars?
http://www.cars.com/go/advice/Story.jsp?section=top&subject=iqs&story=iqsCar&referer=advice&aff=national
How about SUVs, where the American-based companies had staked so much research money?
http://www.cars.com/go/advice/Story.jsp?section=top&story=iqsTruck&subject=iqs&referer=advice&aff=national
The defect rates are the most telling though:
http://www.cars.com/go/advice/Story.jsp?section=top&story=iqsBrand&subject=iqs&referer=advice&aff=national

Toyota is the leader in almost each vehicle category. They lag in the SUVs and truck sales because power and looks tend to supplant quality for the number one spots (once again, depending on which category). However, Toyota has been working on that recently, so those categories, which tend to be much more profitable than cars, will start to see an erosion of the Big 3's market share in the near future.

The next is cost of production. The cost to build a vehicle for the Big 3 (in the US or outside) is higher than the cost for other companies.
http://www.ford.com/en/company/about/publicPolicy/manufacturing.htm
That's what Ford says about it. Specifically, look at this paragraph:
How much of an extra cost burden do U.S. manufacturers carry?

"The National Association of Manufacturers estimated that, when compared to its nine largest trading partners, the U.S. had a 18.3% cost disadvantage: 5.6% in corporate tax rates, 5.5% in employee benefits including health care and pension costs, 3.2% in litigation costs, 3.5% in pollution abatement costs, and 0.5% in rising natural gas prices. When the higher hourly labor costs of U.S. workers was factored in, the total net cost burden was calculated at 22.4%."

So, why do workers clamor for jobs in Toyota or Honda plants? Job security. They are paid a few dollars less per hour, but they don't care simply because they know they don't have to worry about being laid off next week, next month, or next year. Union negotiators do not work for the good of labor. Their primary focus is wages, because that's where they make their money, to the exclusion of many other issues that are important to the workers. If unions were nationalized, that would change their focus...

An amusing joke...

The coach had put together the perfect team for the Detroit Lions, save a great quarterback. He scouted all the colleges and even the Canadian and European Leagues without success.

Then one night on CNN he sees a war-zone scene in Afghanistan. In the background, he spots a young Afghan Muslim soldier with a truly incredible arm. He threw a hand-grenade straight into a window from 80 yards away. Then he threw another from 50 yards down a chimney, and then hit a passing car going 80 miles per hour.

So, the coach brings the young Afghan to the States and teaches him the great game of football. Sure enough, the Lions win the Super Bowl.

After the bowl, the elated quarterback telephones his mother: "Mom, I just won the Super Bowl!"

"I don't want to talk to you," the old Muslim woman says. "You deserted us. You are not my son!"

"Mother, I don't think you understand," pleads the son, "I've just won the greatest sporting event in the world!"

"No! let me tell you," his mother retorts. "At this very moment there are gunshots all around us. The neighborhood is a pile of rubble. Your two brothers were beaten within an inch of their lives last week, and I have to keep your sister in the house so she doesn't get raped!"

"I will never forgive you for making us move to Detroit".

FCEV

Get used to that abreviation, because it is going to be everywhere in the next couple years. FCEV, for those who aren't keeping up on automobile technology (and I can't blame you), stands for Fuel Cell (Electric) Vehicle. Hybrid vehicles, well, they were a bit of a fad. Auto manufacturers are already slimming their hybrid lines after 10 years in the market (6 if you don't live in Japan like me), hybrids are simply not doing as well as manufacturers had hoped. Obviously, when the government reduced the subsidy for hybrids, they weren't helping that niche market. Well, for all of you that drooled over the Prius, the next car to dream about is coming from Honda in mid-2008 (it will be termed a 2009 model, because that's the way they do things). Unlike the Prius, the US government is actually on top of this technology, subsidising it from the start. The technology has isn't ready to replace the internal combustion-based vehicles completely yet, but this is a start. It is supposed to be priced around $20k.

http://automobiles.honda.com/images/future-cars/AutoWeekArticle.pdf

Expect GMC to be rolling out an Crossover (those funky "almost" SUV vehicles) with this technology in 2009 (they originally had slated it for 2010, but the Honda just dropped the gauntlet). Analysts have made comments about this potentially revitalizing GMC, assuming this technology catches, which definitely seems to be the way things are moving.

http://corporate.honda.com/press/article.aspx?id=4092

Oddly, the comedians saw it but the politicians didn’t...

"And if the worst came to the worst, and you didn't get this money... what then?"
"Well, then there would be another market crash. Then I would say to you what people like me always say... that it is not us that will suffer, it is your pension fund."

Scary but true. It really brings up the question... why are we letting these guys run our investments? They take two dollars out of our pocket to give us a dollar and say "look what a good job I did! Better than market average!" That's nice until I want my two dollars back.